Showing posts with label science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label science. Show all posts

3/10/22

Biological weapons or biological research?

3/10/22

After Wuhan, the distinction between research and weapons development, while important, is effectively moot. Operating on the (reliably & repeatedly proven) assumption that most state actors will break virtually any law/norm/good sense to further secure themselves, I am just going to assume Russia's claim the U.S. was developing biological weapons in Ukraine is basically true. 


As Politifact might say, this unproven claim is 100% false!*

*technically possible--anthrax, small pox, super death virus, and maxplaguespreader2000, etc. could theoretically be used as biological weapons in the wrong hands.


Or the "research" can be leaked from a lab by a moron or spy, all while governments point fingers, raise taxes, and invade other countries.

I believe Russia as far as I can throw it, but I wouldn't put it past our government. There is no effective difference between biological research (for very, very dangerous and communicable diseases) and biological weapons development except on paper, they know this, they rely on it, and they exploit it. How do I know? Because if I were a jealous superpower, I would do the same damn thing. It doesn't excuse it. If not Ukraine, then somewhere else, but probably too many somewhere elses including Ukraine.

I'm pessimistic any country will own up to their wrongs or take a hard turn towards benevolence any time soon.

I'm realistic that questionable, potentially dangerous, and probably dubious "research" is taking place all over the world.

But I'm optimistic we will (if slowly) change things for the better. 


[Postscript: I get that we need research on deadly viruses, if we want to have a chance to understand and protect ourselves against them. I don't think that means we need 1000s of labs across the world operating with alarmingly low levels of transparency and security.]

12/13/21

Warp drive update

12/13/21
As a stated objective of this blog, I must dutifully report on any notable updates in the United States' development of warp drive.

While I think there is a not insignificant chance Harold "Sonny" White is playing a long con on whoever is listening to and funding him, there's still a chance he at least believes what he's saying:
Warp drive pioneer and former NASA warp drive specialist Dr. Harold G “Sonny” White has reported the discovery of an actual, real-world “Warp Bubble.” And, according to White, this first of its kind breakthrough by his Limitless Space Institute (LSI) team sets a new starting point for those trying to manufacture a full-sized, warp-capable spacecraft.

In an interview, White added that “our detailed numerical analysis of our custom Casimir cavities helped us identify a real and manufacturable nano/microstructure that is predicted to generate a negative vacuum energy density such that it would manifest a real nanoscale warp bubble, not an analog, but the real thing.” In other words, a warp bubble structure will manifest under these specific conditions. White cautioned that this does not mean we are near building a fully functioning warp drive, as much more science needs to be done (Updated 08/12/21).

“To be clear, our finding is not a warp bubble analog, it is a real, albeit humble and tiny, warp bubble,” White told The Debrief, “hence the significance.”

Maybe we can send Covid-19 to Proxima Centauri soon.


[Note: I'm experimenting with text size. I don't know if it's my eyes or something on the blog changed, but the text seems to be too small. Now the above text is a little too big!]

9/8/21

Daily Mud's Razor

9/8/21

Never ascribe to coincidence that which is adequately explained by government incompetence.

 

It appears Anthony Fauci did lie about coronavirus gain-of-function research at, and the United States taxpayer funds that went to the Wuhan lab in China.

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the Covid-19 virus originated in that Wuhan lab. Similar to Occam and Hanlon's razors, I think the more probable and obvious explanation is government incompetence. Not only is this China's major fuckup, but the United States helped pay for it. Two 21st century superpowers and they can't even keep a virus contained. 

Who's genius idea was it to not only experiment on/create new deadly viruses, but to do so in a massive population center? I bet this person happens to be very wealthy too.

If it weren't for individuals' resilience and resourcefulness, and humankind's uncanny ability to fail upwards, I would say the world is doomed.

9/1/21

Unrest in the FDA

9/1/21

This Biden administration is going swimmingly:

FDA officials are scrambling to collect and analyze data that clearly demonstrate the boosters' benefits before the administration’s Sept. 20 deadline for rolling them out to most adults. Many outside experts, and some within the agency, see uncomfortable similarities between the Biden team's top-down booster plan and former President Donald Trump's attempts to goad FDA into accelerating its initial authorization process for Covid-19 vaccines and push through unproven virus treatments. 

On Tuesday, two top FDA vaccine regulators resigned — a decision that one former official said was rooted in anger over the agency’s lack of autonomy in the booster planning so far.

I don't find this shocking or even all that interesting. But I will say I'm happy to rub it in the faces of the other side, since these are the rules by which we play. It's not so much partisanship as it is a zeal for facilitating cognitive dissonance and karma in response to ideological hubris. Tomato tomahto.

7/27/21

Trust the science

7/27/21

Trust the science, trust the experts, trust the professionals... We've all heard some variation on this before. And when it comes to old, thoroughly explored and tested ideas, applications, phenomena, etc., it's usually pretty safe to trust the experts (most of the time).

But when it comes to the new stuff hardly anyone knows anything about, history suggests we should take a bit more time embracing the experts:


Read the whole thread. Saifedean provides example after example of the experts being quite wrong about new innovations.

And with a helpful reminder from Scott Alexander way back in February, factor in the conscious and subconscious ulterior objectives, corruption, a very complex world, and it's amazing the experts get it right at all:

When the Director of the CDC asserts an opinion, she has to optimize for two things - being right, and keeping power. If she doesn't optimize for the second, she gets replaced as CDC Director by someone who does. That means she's trying to solve a harder problem than Zvi is, and it makes sense that sometimes, despite having more resources than Zvi, she does worse at it. 

The way I imagine this is that Zvi reads some papers on whether the coronavirus has airborne transmission, sees the direction they're leaning, and announces on his blog that it probably has airborne transmission. 

The Director of the CDC reads those same papers. But some important Senator says that if airborne transmission is announced, important industries in his state will go bankrupt. Citizens Against Lockdowns argues that the CDC already screwed up by stressing the later-proven-not-to-exist fomite-based transmission, ignoring the needs of ordinary people in favor of a bias towards imagining hypothetical transmission mechanisms that never materialize; some sympathetic Congressman tells the director that if she makes that same mistake a second time, she's out. One of the papers saying that airborne transmission is impossible comes from Stanford, and the Director owes the dean of Stanford's epidemiology department a favor for helping gather support for one of her policies once. So the Director puts out a press release saying the evidence is not quite strong enough to say airborne transmission definitely happens, and they'll review it further. 

I realize it doesn't sound like it, but I'm trying to excuse the CDC here. I'm not just saying they're corrupt. I'm saying they have to deal with the inevitable amount of corruption which it takes to be part of a democratic government, and they're handling it as well as they can under the circumstances.

With friends of democracy like Scott Alexander, who needs enemies? The lesson I got from Scott's post, was to be skeptical of expert opinions when said experts are in positions of power, when said opinions are for a large audience, and especially when you have an expert friend who disagrees with said opinion. You had me at hello, Scott.


7/1/21

Thursday blend

7/1/21
Haven't had and won't have much time this week, so here are some quick links:

Desperate For Ratings Boost, Brian Stelter Dons Orange Wig



This:

Inventor of mRNA vaccine gets deplatformed for sharing the wrong science.

6/25/21

Lol China

6/25/21

 Via mostly leftwing site HotAir, I saw this:

I am so well-trained by our diversity police that the first thing I noticed is there are no women pictured. I'd be very surprised if a woman even had a significant role in this Chinese propaganda film. Does China have female doctors? (Yes, but good luck finding any statistics, let alone credible statistics).

But more importantly, I began to think about that Chinese doctor, Li Wenliang, who blew the whistle on China, and died shortly after from the virus. Any chance he'll be in the movie? Don't hold your breath.

And lastly, from the HotAir post, Allahpundit raised an excellent point about the NIH removing data upon the request of a Chinese scientist:

Erasing material that’s already been published is considered unethical on a *blog* ... At the federal government’s top public health agency, though, it seems they follow a “memory hole” policy. In the unlikely event that the Chinese researcher who submitted the early Wuhan data was telling the truth about updated genomic sequences being posted to a new database, the original data should have been left up with a note indicating that it was outdated and directing users to that database. Allowing scientists, especially scientists from totalitarian countries, to remove information after the fact is all but inviting them to make NIH complicit in their cover-ups.

Emphasis mine. I see the NIH is competing with the FBI for most incompetent/corrupt bureaucracy. That memory hole policy is looking sharp right now. Now you know why governments across the world are slow-walking their embrace of blockchain, they can't destroy evidence (China however, is leading by example of how to get your totalitarian blockchain on).

5/29/21

Science is dying

5/29/21

 Real science, that is.

I was in college a long time ago, and "peer-reviewed" was the standard. Only those articles could we cite to back up our arguments. Sure, we could toss in some anecdotal evidence, news reports, etc., if it supported the peer-reviewed stuff, but if something wasn't peer-reviewed it was generally ignored.

It's unfortunate because a lot of the new, interesting, and even weird stuff needs investigating, further research, and more discussion. You know, it needs more science. But academia will keep trodding along with their rekindled addiction to group-think and tribalism. 

 Luckily, we still have some independent thinkers among us, who stubbornly resist being ostracized.

8/6/17

Google has some purging to do

8/6/17
[Updated. See end of post.]

You can't be a progressive vanguard with this kind of ideological infighting going on.

So some tech geek at Google got a little fed up, mouthed off, and it's news.1 [Update: use this link for the full, unedited, unGizmodofied essay. Fucking worthless hacks at Gizmodo--see footnotes]

The poor guy/girl/xyrl is going to burn for xyr heresy; the beast and its devotees demand nothing less.

One piece of advice, if you're going to argue for something politically incorrect at a place where PC is sacred, you better be articulate, charming, funny, and back all that up with a very large collection of rock-solid, peer-reviewed studies from many of the most respected journals.2 I imagine this 'manifesto' would have more footnotes than its primary content.

So when you might say "we need to stop assuming that gender gaps imply sexism," all people will hear is "women [are] somehow genetically limited."3

But I heard you. And my inner scientist really wants to dig into that. Plus a lot of the other interesting things you said. I also heard when you said, you "value diversity and inclusion" and aren't "denying that sexism exists."

Unfortunately, nobody else heard those things. As evidenced in the response of Danielle Brown, Google's VP of Diversity, etc. to your "anti-diversity screed":
Diversity and inclusion are a fundamental part of our values and the culture we continue to cultivate. We are unequivocal in our belief that diversity and inclusion are critical to our success as a company, and we'll continue to stand for that and be committed to it for the long haul.
And in the countless, breathless, raging tweets I won't bother to show here. They've successfully reframed your essay as something else entirely. I'm sorry. I really am.
You nitpicked the approved approach to addressing demographic anomalies, which means you're backwards caveman scum. You've blasphemed, committed social suicide by SJW.

Hope you survive it.

Update: Google Fires Author of Divisive Memo on Gender Differences

2nd update: I've included a link to the PDF containing the unedited essay. Here it is again if you missed it. I knew Gizmodo was scummy--hence my first footnote--but now I'm done. I'm never linking nor trusting Gizmodo or Gawker anything again. I'll leave the one I linked above to remind me what hacks they are.

Also, Google is evil.

3rd update: Slate Star Codex looks into the science behind differences in vocational interest between the sexes.4 Scott further notes how sad that this is life now for many industries:
... start treating each other as human beings again. Your co-worker could just be your co-worker, not a potential Nazi to be assaulted or a potential Stalinist who’s going to rat on you.
Read the whole thing.

----------------------------------------------
1. Sorry for the link to Gizmodo.
2. After finding the whole, unedited essay, there are actually several footnotes, dozens of hyperlinks to sources, and a graph. Gizmodo conveniently edited those out to ease reading, I'm sure.
3. Jazz Shaw is a fucking idiot.
4. It would be so wonderful if people accurately represented the essay, which contended biological differences in interest, not ability.

1/2/15

Bending space-time in his garage?

1/2/15
As I understand it, space and time are indivisible. And just by having mass, we are able to bend it, a very, very, insignificantly, virtually unmeasurable, tiny bit. That's not news; that's just what the documentaries and various Wikipedia articles tell me.

What is news, is this guy compressing space in his garage with some kind of motor. I assume, if this is real, the effect is measurable and not insignificant.
[A] strange instrument made up of V-shape panels with fractal arrays on the surfaces. . . is the latest version of what Pares believes is the world’s first low-power warp drive motor.

He turns around and points to the back of his garage door, where a red laser — beamed at the weight and reflected back against the door to demonstrate the movement happening in the case — drifts from its original spot. Slowly, in incremental amounts, the weight is drawn toward the V-shape motor.
I must digress here: unfortunately, those few sentences and one further in are the extent of the 'news' in the article. The other two dozen plus paragraphs are exposition, fluff, filler, and crap.

I really wish journalists would provide a little more detail as to what exactly is happening. If you don't understand it, then please explain what you saw in detail, and if you didn't see it (you shouldn't be writing the article then), try to explain in more than 2 sentences what is occurring with as little technical jargon as possible. Is not that the point of journalism?


If true, this is pretty big news. Compressing space is a key ingredient to any kind of plausible FTL or near light-speed travel. Professor Pares says he should have a "spacecraft" to demonstrate in 6 months.

Again, take this with a cubic light year of salt, because if it's not one thing with Warp Drive scientists, it's another.

Try googling David Pares and you'll run into more than the recommended dose (zero) of UFO idiot sites. This guy has no qualms about being interviewed by quacks. You're not helping reduce the stigma of Warp Drive science by associating with UFO fetishists, Pares.

(I mean come on, at this rate we'll have singularity-level AI robots before we get out of the solar system. They'll be building Warp Drives before we are.)

Then there's NASA's Harold 'Sonny' White, who is apparently working on a Warp Drive, but either smartly, or trollishly, won't say anything useful about it. But hey, at least we got a sweet artist's rendering, so I guess that's something:

5/30/14

Time to close some tabs

5/30/14
I've been wanting to write about most of the stories behind the following links, sometimes starting a draft, sometimes leaving my browser open for days just to avoid extending my already absurdly long list of bookmarks (sleep mode is my new friend).

Hours, days, a week goes by and I just can't force myself to write about something a week old. It's odd how something seemingly so important is considerably less so a week later. But that's the nature of blogging, and news in general (I never claimed to be a great blogger). Also, distraction.

Image from Toolfools

In no particular order, some interesting stuff, even if a few are a bit old:

First, a few links related to what I'm reading. Glenn Greenwald's new book, "No Place to Hide," so far, is okay. I should finish it tonight.
'800 dead babies: if it could, the religious right would bury this story in the same septic tank.' Ignore the tactless linkbait phrasing: this is a big and awfully tragic story. Via The Prussian.

'The 'Miracle' Berry That Could Replace Sugar' and help millions effectively fight obesity.

Remember the Gibson Guitar raids? There may be more to that story.

This piece is over a month old, but I remember wanting to discuss it. I just don't remember why, exactly (obviously something to do with the ousting of the Mozilla CEO, Brenden Eich). It's still a good read however.
  • But if you read this blog post from Mozilla, it is maddening. What are they talking about? I'm so sick of vague language--it probably was mostly read as an apology for letting Hitler run their business. BUT, because it's so vague, it can just as easily be read to suggest that they are very sorry for their intolerance--evinced by ousting a man for having an opinion. Even though it was a very common opinion, one shared by Barrack Obama at the time.

Three links from Slate Star Codex:
I always wanted to try something like this. I tend to think I could easily succeed, but if my Thanksgiving experiences are any indication, probably not.

I want to write a post about anonymity on the Internet, which was partly inspired by this post from the Last Psychiatrist. I will write that post one day.

So VA Secretary Eric Shinseki and White House press Secretary Jay Carney resigned. Why does everything feel like it's all heavily scripted, like a bad TV show? Probably because it is.
  • Is it just me, or are presidential and senatorial politics are feeling very Orwellian, almost Soviet when it comes to appearances? I know congressional politics is highly susceptible to populism, but at least it's a lot more transparent--which makes me reconsider term lengths for the other two (but that's not about to happen).
Comcast, Netflix, and data caps... If you, like me, have given up watching TV through traditional means, be afraid, be very afraid. Relatedly, I've found if you spend enough time searching for channels you like--and they probably all exist--YouTube can all but replace your entire visual entertainment diet. Some people say YouTube is a bubble about to burst; I say it's just getting warmed up.

Possible blog post spoilers (lol, like anyone cares). Stuff I found in the last day or two I kinda want to write about:

'GOP House Votes To Leave States Alone On Medical Marijuana.' Despite the headline, note that the GOP votes in favor were decidedly a minority of GOP votes. At least they allowed a vote on it.

'Scientists Report Finding Reliable Way to Teleport Data'

'It's Time to Stop Babying Mars'

5/15/14

We just need a Death Star now

5/15/14
Life imitates art, or something.

Army's new helmet concept
Wookie hunter

Now that we've got laser guns, spaceships, and lightsabers, should we convene and formally establish the Galactic Empire already and build a Death Star? I mean, we've already got the blueprints for it.

Then again, perhaps we should wait till we have hovering cars. And it won't be long until you see the closest thing to a living, breathing Darth Vader on planet Earth.

There isn't much time. We've got to prepare!

9/24/13

Farewell PopSci

9/24/13
The Popular Science website/webzine whatever decided that the solution to bad speech is more speech. Just kidding, they're stomping down dissent because they don't like it.

What do you say when you ban something you don't like? You say it's for the greater good, especially since that bad thing is poisoning the water supply!
Comments can be bad for science. That's why, here at PopularScience.com, we're shutting them off. . . .

Another, similarly designed study found that even just firmly worded (but not uncivil) disagreements between commenters impacted readers' perception of science.

If you carry out those results to their logical end--commenters shape public opinion; public opinion shapes public policy; public policy shapes how and whether and what research gets funded--you start to see why we feel compelled to hit the "off" switch.

A politically motivated, decades-long war on expertise has eroded the popular consensus on a wide variety of scientifically validated topics. Everything, from evolution to the origins of climate change, is mistakenly up for grabs again. [emphasis mine]
What the hell is a "scientifically validated topic"? I was under the impression a topic was a subject or range of similar subjects up for discussion or observation--basically everything under the sun, including the sun. I wonder if they meant to say scientifically validated hypotheses or better yet, popular areas of research? Popular in the sense that it's an easy pretense to suckle Uncle Sam's tit.

If you guys are having a difficult time finding some tax-and-spend Democrats to throw some money your way on the Holy Grail of celebrated lefty causes, then you're doing something horribly wrong. And it aint the goddamned comments on your amateurish articles.

It's not like we have reason to be skeptical of scientific studies.

I used to visit PopSci on a somewhat regular basis. The comments were occasionally childish, but often informative. I think the real problem was that a significant portion of their articles were poorly written, like they were straight from the mouth of a troubled adolescent communist with daddy issues. One of their regular contributors felt the need to continually blame Republicans for what happened to be wrong in the world that day. That guy always got raped in the comment sections, and rightly so.

I could say something about heat and a kitchen, but no. They have every right to piss on their commenters. I was not a commenter there, and now I'm not a reader. 

Via Ace.

8/19/13

XKCD: suggested exoplanet names

8/19/13
Seriously, what's wrong with these? Some of them are actually awesome. Why not let our galactic progeny know we occasionally had a sense of humor?


I understand there are billions and billions of exoplanets out there, but can we sometimes avoid names like HR 8799d, or PSR B1620-26?

4/1/13

Warp Drive Update

4/1/13
Since reporting on any and all notable (if incremental and highly theoretical) advances in Warp drive is one of the explicit goals of this blog, I am duty bound to chronicle the following:

From PopSci.com: Warp Factor: A NASA scientist claims to be on the verge of faster-than-light travel: is he for real?
Not pictured above: NASA Scientist Sonny White
If, like me, you are pretty well-aware of the warp field theory and negative energy then don't bother reading most of the first two pages--it's all background on that (way to bury the lede PopSci). But PopSci reporter Konstantin Kakaes, took a tour with and interviewed NASA's warp-drive (among other things) scientist, Sonny White.

Here is where the good stuff starts:
Negative energy . . . is gravitationally repulsive. Instead of drawing space-time together, negative energy would push it apart. Roughly speaking, for his model to work, Alcubierre needed negative energy to expand the space-time behind a craft.

Though no one has ever measured negative energy, quantum mechanics predicts that it exists, and scientists should be able to create it in a lab. One way to generate it would be through the Casimir effect: Two parallel conducting plates, placed very closely together, should create small amounts of negative energy. Where Alcubierre’s model broke down is that it required a vast amount of negative energy, orders of magnitude more than most scientists estimate could be produced.

White says he’s found a way around that limitation. In a computer simulation, White varied the strength and geometry of a warp field. He determined that, in theory, he could produce a warp bubble using millions of times less negative energy than Alcubierre predicted and perhaps little enough that a space craft could carry the means of producing it. “The findings,” he says, “change it from impractical to plausible.”
"Plausible"
It'll be a good day when we discard the "you don't need to be a rocket scientist" idiom and replace it with "you don't need to be a warp scientist." I digress too much. Anyway, that snippet too, is old news. White's had this idea rolling around in his head for some time. But it looks like he finally got a little project going:
White’s warp experiment is tucked into the back corner of the room [What? Back corner?!? Get your priorities straight! -ed). A helium-neon laser is bolted onto a small table pricked with a lattice of holes, along with a beam splitter and a black-and-white commercial CCD camera. This is a White-Juday warp field interferometer, which White named for himself and Richard Juday, a retired JSC employee who is helping White analyze the data from the CCD. Half of the laser light passes through a ring—White’s test device. The other half does not. If the ring has no effect, White would expect one type of signal at the CCD. If it warps space, he says “the interference pattern will be starkly different.”
Before I quote any more, and blatantly abuse fair use, I should get my cynicism out of the way. Maybe it's just my cynical nature, but I'm not sure this White guy (heh) is on the level. I understand NASA is all government funded and deals with some pretty sensitive stuff, as well as mingling with the Pentagon/Air Force; but, it's also about science. Which is about sharing and showing your work. So upon reading the following, it felt like I was watching a bad sci-fi movie:

"People come in and want to talk about some things"
Yet when I ask how it would create the negative energy necessary to warp space-time he becomes evasive. “That gets into . . . I can tell you what I can tell you. I can’t tell you what I can’t tell you,” he says. He explains that he has signed nondisclosure agreements that prevent him from revealing the particulars. I ask with whom he has the agreements. He says, “People come in and want to talk about some things. I just can’t go into any more detail than that.”
Well, alright then. So, when can we expect to vacation in Alpha Centauri? If you're as optimistic as White sounds, probably in a few decades. I don't know if he's just generating buzz for whatever reason, or if he's that confident, but there it is. He says he's even found a way (at least theoretically--he's not clear on it) to generate a stable warp field. Here's hoping.

Update: From commenter Noel, apparently PopSci made a mistake. "White has not signed any NDAs. The article has it backwards. In order for the Popular Science author to get briefed on the referenced technology, he would need to sign an NDA with the government . . ."

7/4/12

Higgs boson "god particle" for dummies

7/4/12
If you're like me and the extent of your physics knowledge is what you learned from Star Trek, then this my friends, is for you.



Comics by Jorge Cham.

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