We are in a housing bubble

But it's not as bubbly as the last one, which is to say there are significant supply and demand issues that make this bubble appear as good 'ol market forces doing what they do. 

Disclaimer: I'm a complete amateur when it comes to the housing market, but I know what I've seen and experienced the past several years, compared that to other reports and observations, and well, I'm confident I'm not horribly wrong.

Unless my financial situation dramatically improves soon, or housing prices approach affordable levels soon, I have given up on buying a house. With respect to wealth creation, I'll focus on investing, saving, and entrepreneurship. Maybe I should buy a house I can barely afford, sell it a couple years later and profit. But that's a bigger gamble than what I do with my other investments, plus hassle & ownership headaches, plus nothing ever goes according to plan. So right now, screw buying and living in a house, I'm not playing that game.

But there is a huge demand for housing:


I think it's a combination of many things: cheap money the last several years, the high and climbing prices stirs up the hornet's nest of speculators and flippers further driving prices, high wood prices and supply chain issues, an explosion of remote workers, inflation, etc.

When supply can't meet demand, prices go up (as they should, and that is not a bubble) and the market balances things out. But it's not balancing out.

The below is for an average-sized single family home (3 bed, 2 bath) in a suburban area in northern Utah (where we had water shortages last summer because there are too many people!):

It's listed for nearly $500k.

This is what you need to make to reasonably afford the average single-family house here (click image to enlarge):

 $110,000 with 10% down, and that is with little existing debt. Welcome to the real estate game; you cannot play! Something that cannot go on forever, will not.