Showing posts with label health care. Show all posts
Showing posts with label health care. Show all posts

9/27/21

Thinking out loud about lockdowns

9/27/21

I'm short on time as always, so just imagine I said something clever and wrote beautifully compelling and logical segues between each point [I might edit this later when I have time].

First some tweets and news:


Here's the story:
As New York prepares to enforce its COVID-19 vaccination deadline on Monday, Governor Kathy Hochul said a state emergency declaration and other options, including calling in health care workers from the National Guard, are on the table to address any potential hospital staffing shortages.

"I am monitoring the staffing situation closely and we have a plan to increase our health care workforce and help alleviate the burdens on our hospitals and other health care facilities," Hochul said in a statement.

Then read this from Michael Tracey, about a somewhat extreme example which may portend where things are headed, or at least where many want them to go:
The thing of broader societal consequence is that Connecticut College now serves as a miniature test case for what happens when a framework of “permanent crisis” is allowed to persist, long past the point of there being any meaningful “crisis” at hand.

Many commemorations of the 9/11 anniversary this year rightly noted the extreme overreaction the attacks engendered: especially the string of failed military interventions and the erection of a massive surveillance state. All of this was eagerly egged on by a suite of enterprising financial interests which profited handsomely from the frenzied climate of that time. The resulting erosion of civil liberties never hurt their bottom lines; after all, they’re the ones producing technologies to erode them with maximum efficiency.

Do we really suppose that the vested interests which have likewise found such a lucrative market opening with COVID — notably the “endless testing” industry, including the elaborate “surveillance testing” regime that Connecticut College students must submit to — are just going to wind down their operations voluntarily? “Time to call it a day, folks?” Or is the bureaucratic/financial momentum of these initiatives going to assure that they effectively become permanent fixtures of daily life? (I’ve been doing some reporting on the “testing industrial complex,” which is undergoing a post-9/11 style renaissance as we speak, so be on the lookout for that soon. Subscribe, etc.)

Lest anyone find it peculiar that I am devoting so much attention to the goings-on at a fairly obscure liberal arts college in Connecticut, after the Friday article’s publication, I received the following message:

I’m an administrator at a small liberal arts college in Massachusetts and part of their COVID response team. I fear our college would do the same as Connecticut College if our cases increase. We’re already testing students twice per week despite a 95%+ vaccination rate. I’m one of a handful of voices in our group trying to be a voice of reason but am outnumbered. I’m going to share your Substack column with our COVID team in the hopes it will make at least some members come around to the side of reason. It breaks my heart to see college students, who should be having one of the best experiences of their lives, treated like prisoners.

One thing that has me very concerned about the Connecticut College situation is that college administrators are generally obsessed with following the example that other colleges set. There is a profound fear of being seen as an outlier. Our COVID response team has already received an email from the leader of the team asking if we would be ready to implement the Connecticut College plan if our COVID cases continue to rise.

You may have been witness to or participated in the mind-numbing twitter debates about whether to lockdown or not to lockdown, what is excessive and what is merely prudent, etc. Honestly, I go back and forth, but I find myself more often favoring individual freedom (even though I have the cutest little nephew who is immunocompromised, and several high-risk relatives). Those who are at-risk and/or afraid can and should take extra precautions. It's the same with any other behavior, like driving. We take risks, some of them quite deadly, every single day. 

We have stopped thinking about a lot of those risks, and left the crass, but necessary cost-benefit analyses of what a human life is worth to somebody else. Somebody we probably don't know, who we didn't vote for, and who is rarely scrutinized for their valuation of a human life. And we mostly sleep comfortably with that fact we choose not to think about.

This reminded me of a clip of Milton Friedman, arguing with a college student:



We are in the midst of a public mass cost-benefit analyses of covid-19 policies. Weighing the risks versus freedom. This is a very messy and mostly decentralized process, with a lot of misinformation, changing guidelines, a mutating virus, a lot of public fear and exasperation--resulting in this mess we find ourselves in.

Then I started thinking about politics. What group is the most politically powerful? Conspiracy theories aside, that would undoubtedly be the elderly. They are the wealthiest, the most likely to vote, and likely the most at-risk group from this virus. Follow the money, follow the votes, follow the politician's survival instincts... you get the idea.

Whether explicitly or not, I posit that a major (if not the chief) contributing factor to prolonged and excessive policy reactions to covid, be it lockdowns, mask/vaccine mandates, school closures, distancing requirements, indoor activity restrictions, is that the elderly do not want to take any chances.

And there's little we can do about it, short of forming an unrealistically new, larger, politician-donating voting bloc and powerful lobby groups of younger people opposed to excessive covid policies. Or start a revolution.

Since both parties have large swaths of elderly constituents, don't expect either of them to step up. We'll get lip-service and a few politicians serving that niche, but I am highly doubtful things will change until the elderly feel much safer and the vast majority of voters are fed up with these policies. And there's always the risk we normalize and ingrain them: forever-pandemic society. Time will tell.

7/29/21

Thursday blend: to mask or not to mask

7/29/21

 So the CDC is now saying masks should be worn by the vaccinated. Or was it the other way around? No, the wheel was spun and the needle definitely landed on masks this time:

More than a day after issuing new guidance that vaccinated people should wear masks indoors – recommendations that are likely to affect millions of Americans in the form of private and public mask mandates – the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has yet to release the data behind its decision. ...

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky explained that the reason for the CDC's reversal on indoor masking for vaccinated people is because "in rare occasions, some vaccinated people infected with the delta variant after vaccination may be contagious and pass the virus to others."

For about a year now, we knew people could catch COVID more than once. For a few months now, we knew the vaccinated could still catch COVID. And we at least suspected they could still pass on the virus to others. And I don't want to get into the quagmire of discussing mask effectiveness, but I will say the general consensus of more or less trustworthy and honest people seems to suggest that masks at least help a little in preventing infected mask wearers from spreading it to others (N95 masks must surely be better, but your average person does not wear those).

But I do not see bodies piling up on the streets, and the one time I did visit my local ER during the height of the pandemic, it was virtually empty. My reality does not match the national hysteria.

Meanwhile, as the vaccine hesitant and skeptics are harassed and ridiculed by the president and the tolerant left, the vaccine is still pending approval from the FDA:

Though the FDA has yet to disclose a time line for when its work will be done, medical experts and sources familiar with the process tell CNN that full approval could come within the next couple of months. While that would amount to a record fast pace, the urgency is rising for a fully approved vaccine given the troubling surge in Covid cases sweeping the country.

 

PCR tests: I am leaning toward believing the CDC, but given the events and track record of the experts the past year and a half, I am skeptical. From the CDC:

After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel... CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses

That's a poor choice of words, which set social media on fire. And every government-approved media agency has been on damage control:

[T]he agency was encouraging labs to switch to tests that can also detect influenza at the same time, since it will “save both time and resources.”

But social media users misinterpreted and misrepresented the announcement. False claims circulated on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram that the CDC’s move meant the agency and the FDA had admitted PCR tests do not work. Some posts online falsely said the test was unable to differentiate between coronavirus and influenza, leading to inflated COVID-19 counts and depressed flu counts.

 

In other news, the 1/6 BigLie circus continues apace:


7/22/21

Thursday blend: depressing edition

7/22/21
Politics aside, I honestly would rather have mean tweets and an egotistical cowboy prez than more of this:
If it weren't for double standards, they wouldn't have any:

This is satire, but you know it's not really:


I am going to have to wean myself off of Blizzard games. Should have done that years ago.
Activision Blizzard sued by state agency over alleged widespread discrimination:
The full lawsuit includes a lengthy list of violations of both sexual discrimination and sexual harassment statutes, including many that single out unnamed Activision Blizzard staffers, and they range from explicit to repugnant. The lawsuit describes one particularly extreme example of alleged harassment—and says the sufferer eventually took her own life.

I would like to see raw, unadulterated numbers of vaccinated and unvaccinated COVID infections and deaths. But that's probably a pipe dream, and even if you handed it to me on a silver platter, I wouldn't know if I could trust it.


The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits rose last week from the lowest point of the pandemic, even as the job market appears to be rebounding on the strength of a reopened economy [aka unexpectedly].

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