7/2/12

Mexico's IFE shows win for leftist PRI candidate. Updated

7/2/12
With over 95% of the votes tallied by Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), the PRI Party candidate, Enrique Peña Nieto, is shown to be the clear winner in Mexico's General Election.

What does this mean, you may ask, for America? Well, not much or a lot--depending on how you look at it.

I'm no expert on Mexico's PRI, but they have run its executive government for most of recent history. Official relations will probably not change much between our governments, but border violence and economics might.

What I'm expecting from them are re-emphasized socialistic policies. The PRI did base much of their policies on the Soviet Union's. More nationalization, more central planning, which generally means slow growth in today's global economy. And slow growth generally means more crime.

Which brings me to Peña Nieto. The Mexican drug war has been astonishingly violent, and so dangerous for and increasing number of Mexicans that security is their number one issue. Peña Nieto ran on trying a different approach to the drug war; instead of focusing on the big fish, he plans to stop the everyday crimes.

That might be effective for people in Mexico, but I don't see it doing much to stop the border violence nor drug smuggling in the United States. With less heat on the drug cartels it might actually get worse.

Short of dramatic events or significant change in American policy, I expect more immigrants from Mexico both legal and not, similar if not increased levels of drug smuggling and border violence, but otherwise little change.

Update: Maybe Peña Nieto will put the heat on the cartels:
Peña Nieto wants to boost Mexico’s Federal Police, and he’s for creating a new national paramilitary police force to fight the cartels. His campaign has also been “highly solicitous” of the United States, notes Patrick Corcoran of InSight, an organized crime monitoring group. This could mean a bigger U.S. role. Naranjo is also reportedly close to U.S. officials.

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